Smart Punter

Smart Punter – Form, Analysis And Probability

April 16, 2022

 

“A study of form is a necessary part of any successful punter’s preparation and can be a hugely rewarding experience.”

 

As the saying goes, the more effort you put into something the more you will get out of it and that certainly holds true when it comes to betting.
A study of form, which records performance in previous races as a benchmark for comparison against which to predict future results, is a necessary part of any successful punter’s preparation and can be a hugely rewarding experience.
Every person will have their own approach to interpreting a horse’s form and statistics and there is no accepted way of doing it.
A useful starting point is to look at the class of the race under analysis.
An understanding of whether a horse is running in an easier, harder or comparable standard of race to those contested previously is of considerable benefit.
Beyond that, the range of variables to consider may include things such as:

TRACK CONDITIONS

Some horses perform better or worse on specific tracks, so it is handy to know how each runner has performed at this circuit in the past.
Similarly, the rating of the track is an important consideration, some horses thrive in wet conditions while others struggle.

DISTANCE

Pay attention to how the horse has performed over the race distance in the past.
Some horses have ‘pet’ distances that they are at their most effective.
Alternatively, a horse may be racing over a distance that is unsuitable or over which it is unproven.

STAGE OF PREPARATION

Horses are often set to ‘peak’ at a certain stage of their preparation.
Some horses are ‘first-up’ specialists and race to an optimal level when fresh from a spell.
Other horses need time to build up their fitness base and don’t perform at their best until their fourth of fifth run.
For that reason, analysis of how each horse has gone at relative stages of preparation in the past can be vital.

 

 

BARRIER DRAW

Lower draws are typically preferred but the impact of this may vary depending on the track and make-up of the field. 

GEAR CHANGES

Horses can have one or more parts of their gear altered and this can contribute towards performance.
Having blinkers, which aim to eliminate distractions and sharpen focus, added for the first time is often viewed as a positive.

 

"By using form and other types of analysis to help determine probability, you are now in a position to make more informed decisions with your betting and achieve greater success."

 

 

Further pieces of the puzzle come in the form of speed maps and settling grids, which give some insight into how a race may eventuate by predicting where each horse will settle during the race, the likely pace of the race and how this will aid or hinder individual runners depending on their preferred pattern of racing.
Punters also have access to race replays which can assist with identifying things that aren’t always apparent on paper, such as whether a horse suffered interference, was aided or hampered by a biased track or good/bad ride.
Armed with the above knowledge, you should then be in a position to build a picture of how the race may pan out and rate each horse’s chance of winning.
Compiling your own set of prices, or working out the probability of each outcome, then places you in a position to compare your odds against the market as a means by which to identify value.
Let’s say we have a race with five starters.
There is a 100% chance that one of the five will win and your analysis may settle on the following probabilities:

Horse A: 22%
Horse B: 13%
Horse C: 37%
Horse D: 3%
Horse E: 25%

Dividing 100 by each of these probabilities converts them to decimal form:

Horse A: 4.55
Horse B: 7.70
Horse C: 2.70
Horse D: 33.3
Horse E: 4.00

By using form and other types of analysis to help determine probability, you are now in a position to make more informed decisions with your betting and achieve greater success.

 

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Other Smart Punter Articles

 

CLICK HERE: Smart Punter – Staking And Discipline

CLICK HERE: Smart Punter – Deposit Limits

CLICK HERE: Smart Punter – Form, Analysis And Probability

CLICK HERE: Smart Punter – Winning And Losing Runs, Taking Time Out