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The Spring Carnival is drawing to a close and now the off-season horses are coming back to the fore and the racing as a whole will become a little easier for those participating.
For us punters though, nothing changes as there is still bets to be had and money to be won.
As a wise man once told me 'They pay the same at Murtoa and Caulfield and Murtoa will always have more slow horses'.
The premise of that quote being that no matter what track you bet at, you can still take the same odds and that the lower the grade of the meeting then the horses with the better chances will stick out more making it easier to find winners and I hope his right especially for this Wednesday at Bendigo. 
The track is rated a Good4 with the rail out 3m the entire circuit, so expecting the track to play reasonably fair.

 

 

 

$2.00 Sahra to Win Hawkesbury R5

 

Race 1 – 1000m Maiden
Very keen we can back the winner here at better odds than his starting price and that is with the Levi Kavanagh-trained Nantucket (2.15) (in above tweet) who has ran 2nd on all three of his race starts. 
He has been beaten by some good quality of horses too in those three starts in Our Playboy and Valaquenta, who are both stakes grade horses and they only just beat him.

 

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Jamie Kah (pictured above) goes on here which is a massive tick as she is the no.1 rider in this state at the minute and his most recent Jump Out was very good when placed under minimal pressure.
Surprised the market had him better odds than 2.00+ when opened up as this race has no substance to it.
I marked him 1.50 and expect him to win convincingly here. 
Debutant Strategy (5.00) could be the danger.
He cost $1.7 million as a yearling and has been given time to mature.
He has showed good speed in recent Caulfield Jump Outs and could run a bold race on debut. 

 

Suggested Bet – Nantucket (2.15) (win)
 

 

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Race 3 – 1400m Maiden
Ciaron Maher (pictured above) and David Eustace saddle up Nowitzki (2.50) for his 2nd start at the races here.
He started a 3.00 fav on debut at Kembla Grange back in April but was well beaten into last when he may have had issues, so happy to forgive that performance.
This campaign he has been down at their Balnarring stable and doing his work in the beach which may have switched him on as his Jump Outs have been visually impressive.
The latest at Cranbourne over 1000m he was able to win the heat under limited pressure and was strong through the line indicating that 1400m first up will be little issue.
This race has no depth and given that more than happy to back him at the price. 
Ahika (3.80) was good last start but that Maiden she ran in is a questionable form race and Fiorensact (9.50) and Line Of Descent (8.50) maybe able to improve from their debut runs. However, feel if Nowitzki runs up to his Jump Outs, he will win. 

 

Suggested Bet – Nowitzki (2.50) (win)

 

 

One to Watch

Night's Watch had a sneaky jump out during the week at Ararat and is now under the care of Archie Alexander.
His work was very very good and I'd be keen to back him first up this preparation at 1400m plus as it his best he is a class horse.
Keep a look out for him in the form guide in the coming weeks. 

Good luck punters!
 

 

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