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Trav Noonan’s Saturday Racing October 17 Caulfield Cup Runner-By-Runner Guide

October 16, 2020April 26th, 2022

What a race this year’s Caulfield Cup (Race 9) promises to be with a quality field engaged for the $5.1 million feature.
You’ve got winners of the Melbourne Cup, Epsom Derby, Tancred Stakes, VRC Derby, Ebor Handicap, Australasian Oaks, Turnbull Stakes, Herbert Power, Queen Elizabeth Stakes (VIC) and The Metropolitan, so the field depth is well and truly there.
Anthony Van Dyck and Verry Elleegant are two of the best horses to start in the race in recent memory and control the market at this stage. 

TRACK CONDITIONS – Rail is in the True for Saturday with rain expected Thursday and Saturday likely to bring this track into the Soft range come jump time.
Expecting by Race 9 on Saturday that the inside may have chopped out and that getting wider into lanes 9, 10, 11, 12 will be the spot to be.
Similar to where Ole Kirk and Dirty Work raced in the straight last week. 

TEMPO – Predicting the race will be run at a slow tempo here to the 800m with no real natural leaders.
Finche, Buckhurst, Anthony Van Dyck and Dashing Willoughby look the main on pacers here with the likes of Toffee Tongue, Aktau, Prince Of Arran and Dalasan all wanting positions forward of midfield.
Verry Elleegant (pictured at top) should land midfield and get a nice run about 5-6 lengths off the leaders with Vow And Declare, Avilius and Warning all likely to back near last.


1 – Anthony Van Dyck (21) (5.00)


Trainer: Aidan O’Brien- Jockey: Hugh Bowman 58.5kgs – Barrier: 21 

Record: 17-6-3-3 Prizemoney: $3.39 million. Career Highlights: 1st Epsom Derby G1 2400m Epsom, UK 29.10.19, 1st Prix Foy G2 2400m Longchamp, France 13.9.20, 2nd Coronation Cup G1 2400m Newmarket, UK 5.6.20, 3rd Breeders Cup Turf G1 2414m Santa Anita, USA 2.11.19.

One of the best horses to have raced in this country from an internationals perspective and well and truly deserves his 58.5kg impost due to his world class form around Ghaiyyath and Stradivarius this year.
The weight shouldn’t beat him as high class stayers Dunaden (2012), Admire Rakti (2014) and Best Solution (2018) all carried above 57.5 in recent years to win this race and he is a better horse than them.
He seems to take a long time to build up his sprint in his races and given that he would likely be best suited if the race was slowly run and he could be in the first 6 or 7 in running.
Small queries would be if the track was wet, the wide gate as he may need to cover plenty of ground and that he didn’t race well in Hong Kong late last year which gives me a small question as to if he travels well.
Offsetting those queries are his class and trainer/jockey combination.

Verdict: Legitimate winning chance but has a task from the barrier and the prospect of a Soft track doesn’t suit.


$3.00 Anthony Van Dyck to run Top 5 in Caulfield Cup


2 – Avilius (26.00)


Trainer: James Cummings- Jockey: John Allen 57kgs – Barrier: 17

Record: 31-11-3-4 Prizemoney: $3.38 million. Career Highlights: 1st Tancred Stakes 2400m G1 Rosehill 30.3.19, 1st Ranvet Stakes 2000m G1 Rosehill 23.3.19, 1st George Main Stakes 1600m G1 Randwick 21.9.19, 3rd Tancred Stakes 2400m G1 Rosehill 28.3.20.

Three-time Group 1 winner who at his best is one of Australia’s best racehorses in training.
His form in 2020 has probably been a length or two off his best which was evident in the Autumn when he was beaten up by Verry Elleegant in the Tancred but his last run in the Hill Stakes when 2nd behind Kolding was a sign, he could be ready to produce a big performance next start with the blinkers adding something to the old boy.
The rise to 2400m is an obvious tick as he has never missed a place at this distance.
He also tends to race well here at Caulfield and has won with big weights in the past so the 57kgs shouldn’t worry him.
Getting a big price about a horse who has a big Starting Price profile in Group 1 races.
Query is whether at 7-years-old his best is behind him.

Verdict: Winning chance and over the odds, must include in Trifectas, First Fours. 



3 – Vow And Declare (34.00) (in above tweet)


Trainer: Danny O’Brien- Jockey: Damien Oliver 57kgs – Barrier: 18

Record: 18-4-3-3 Prizemoney: $5.875 million. Career Highlights: 1st Melbourne Cup G1 3200m Flemington 5.11.19, 2nd Caulfield Cup G1 2400m Caulfield 19.10.19, 3rd Australian Cup G1 2000m Flemington 7.3.20.

Reigning Melbourne Cup winner who was just okay in the Turnbull Stakes last time when beaten 2.8 lengths by Verry Elleegant in a bunched finish.
Run prior in the Makybe Diva Stakes was much better when running home in the equal quickest Last 200m of the race.
He ran a great race in this race last year behind Mer De Glace and if he repeated that effort, he would be a leading contender.
The big question is though whether he is going as well as last year and if he can offset the 5.5kg weight increase this year in a stronger edition of the race.
The wide gate forces their hand here to go back.

Verdict: Has obvious class on his day and an elite trainer/jockey combo but he isn’t racing well enough I feel to win and has too much weight relative to last year.
Deserves to be long odds.

4 – Buckhurst (13.00)


Trainer: Joseph O’Brien – Jockey: Ben Melham 55kgs – Barrier: 9

Record: 10-4-3-0 Prizemoney: $263k. Career Highlights: 1st Alleged Stakes G3 2012m Curragh, IRE 27.6.20, 1st Royal Whip Stakes G3 2000m Curragh, IRE 16.8.19, 2nd Kilternan Stakes G3 2414m Leopardstown, IRE 14.9.19.

Lloyd and Nick Williams owned import who has shown good ability in his career to date.
His form last year when winning two Group 3s and running a narrow 2nd to last year’s Melbourne Cup favourite Constantinople was very good and he seemed like then a race like this would be an ideal target in 12 months.
Since then though his form has been a bit mixed.
He started the season this year well with a 2nd over a mile in a decent contest and then was able to beat Sir Dragonet in a three-horse race in the Alleged Stakes at the Curragh which reads very well as Sir Dragonet as a leading Cox Plate contender.
It’s his last two starts though that have been a little concerning as he was beaten comprehensively in the Tattersall’s Gold Cup and then was just plain behind Tiger Moth in the Kilternan Stakes last start when getting along way back.
His best runs do seem to have been when rolling on speed which is a tick here as there isn’t many pace influencers.
Word is he is working very well at Werribee and his acclimatized well to Australian conditions.

Verdict: Winning chance on his best form and is one of the leading contenders.



5 – Mirage Dancer (20.00) (in above tweet)


Trainer: Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young – Jockey: Craig Newitt 55kgs – Barrier: 6

Record: 26-5-5-6 Prizemoney: $1.49 million. Career Highlights: 1st The Metropolitan 2400m G1 Randwick 3.10.20, 1st Glorious Stakes 2400m G3 Goodwood, UK 3.8.18, 3rd Hardwicke Stakes 2400m G2 Royal Ascot, UK 22.6.19, 3rd Caulfield Cup 2400m G1 Caulfield 19.10.19.

Won his first race in Australia when claiming The Metropolitan at Randwick thanks to a 12/10 ride from Nash Rawiller.
The form from that race is lengths inferior to what is required to win a Caulfield Cup but he has raced well at this level in the past including when he ran 3rd in this race last year when carrying 1kg more than he does on Saturday.
The key to him would be a soft run race and a track on the good side as he is better on top of the ground.

 Verdict: Don’t think he has the class to win a Caulfield Cup but can run top five if brings his best.


6 – Mustajeer (20.00)


Trainer: Kris Lees – Jockey: Billy Egan 55kgs – Barrier: 15

Record: 28-5-5-3 Prizemoney: $1.84 million Career Highlights: 1st Ebor Handicap 2787m York, UK 24.8.19, 1st Parramatta Cup 1900m LR Rosehill 22.3.20, 2nd Tancred Stakes 2400m G1 Rosehill 28.3.20. 

His form early in the year in Sydney was good with 2nd’s behind Master Of Wine and Verry Elleegant but his runs this Spring have been well short of his best.
Last start he was soundly beaten by Mirage Dancer in The Metropolitan when finishing 9th beaten 4.4 lengths after getting a decent run in transit.
A rain affected track would help his chances but he needs to improve lengths to finish in the top 5 on his recent form.

Verdict: Can’t win. Genuine 200-1 chance and would shock if in the finish.


7 – Verry Elleegant (4.80) (pictured at top)


Trainer: Chris Waller- Jockey: Mark Zahra 55kgs – Barrier: 11

Record: 23-10-5-1 Prizemoney: $3.74 million. Career Highlights: 1st Turnbull Stakes G1 2000m Flemington 3.10.20, 1st Winx Stakes G1 1400m Randwick 22.8.20, 1st Tancred Stakes G1 2400m Rosehill 28.3.20, 1st Australian Oaks G1 2400m Randwick 13.4.19, 1st Vinery Stud Stakes G1 2000m Rosehill 30.3.19, 2nd Queen Elizabeth Stakes G1 2000m Randwick 11.4.20, 2nd Ranvet Stakes G1 2000m 21.3.20, 2nd Chipping Norton Stakes G1 1600m Randwick 29.2.20.

One of the best horses to race in this Country in the past few seasons and has stamped herself as the premier middle-distance, staying horse in Australia due to her unbelievable record in 2020.
She has 3 Group 1s and placed 2nd in 3 others behind Addeybb and Te Akau Shark which is elite form.
Her win in the Turnbull Stakes last start was that of a true star as she overcame adversity after having to cover a stack of ground due to racing wide in the run.
Her whole campaign has been set for this race and she is racing in career best form.
Chris Waller and connections will be hoping the rain does come though as she is a superior wet track horse to what she is on dry but she’s good enough to be right in the finish on any track condition. 

Verdict: The horse to beat and deserving favourite.


8 – Dashing Willoughby (19.00)


Trainer: Andrew Balding – Jockey: Michael Walker 54.5kgs – Barrier: 2

Record: 13-4-2-1 Prizemoney: $337k Career Highlights: 1st Queen’s Vase G2 2847m Royal Ascot, UK 19.10.19, 1st Henry the Third Stakes G3 3264m Sandown, UK 5.7.20, 3rd Chester Vase G3 2458m Chester, UK 8.5.19.

Lightly raced International who comes here racing in career best form albeit over longer distances.
He was a dominant winner two starts back at Sandown when thrashing 2018 Melbourne Cup winner Cross Counter but that horse is racing well below his best, so that form has to a query.
Last start he was outclassed by the likes of Enbihaar, Stratum Albion and Nayef Road when he finished 4th.
Michael Walker has chosen to ride him over Prince Of Arran this spring which is an interesting pointer as to how his rated.
Seems a horse who will be much better suited in a Melbourne Cup and in a true staying test as his one-paced.
Concussion Plates on suggest he has had problems with his feet at Werribee.

Verdict: Too Slow to win a Caulfield Cup, here for a pipe opener for Flemington.



9 – Finche (12.00) (in above tweet)


Trainer: Chris Waller- Jockey: Damian Lane 54.5kgs – Barrier: 12

Record: 17-4-1-5 Prizemoney: $1.14 million. Career Highlights: 1st Kingston Town Stakes G3 2000m Randwick 21.9.19, 1st Prix De Reux G3 2400m Deauville, France 5.8.18, 2nd Turnbull Stakes G1 2000m Flemington 5.10.19, 3rd Turnbull Stakes 2000m G1 Flemington 3.10.20, 3rd Geelong Cup G3 2400m Geelong 24.10.18.

Top class stayer who is still lightly raced and comes here in good form.
His form since joining Chris Waller has been very consistent with him failing to run a bad race.
He has been competitive in both of his appearances in the Melbourne Cup and was a good run in this race last year when covering ground out wide for the majority of the trip.
He only has had two starts this year but has shown in both that is very much on par with his best ratings which was evident by his 3rd in the Turnbull Stakes.
He did have all the favours that day though and it’s hard to see him turning the tables on Verry Elleegant off that run.
Damian Lane taking over the ride is a positive and you would assume he will be on speed making this a true staying test.

Verdict: Can run in the Top 5 but lacks a killer punch that it is needed to win. 


10 – Prince Of Arran (23.00)


Trainer: Charlie Fellowes – Jockey: Jamie Kah 54.5kgs – Barrier: 19

Record: 43-6-8-8 Prizemoney: $2.91 million Career Highlights: 1st Hotham Handicap G3 2500m Flemington 3.11.18, 1st Geelong Cup G3 2400m Geelong 23.10.19, 2nd Melbourne

Cup G1 3200m Flemington 5.11.19, 2nd Herbert Power Stakes G2 2400m Caulfield 12.10.19, 3rd Melbourne Cup G1 3200m Flemington 6.11.18.

The well-travelled UK Stayer is back for yet another Spring Carnival in Melbourne and this time he will no doubt carry plenty of sentimentality with racing fans and punters due to how well he has performed here the past 2 years.
He’s a proven Group class stayer in this Country and seems to be racing as well as ever in his home country of England with his most recent run in the September Stakes a good effort behind champion Enable.
His query here is whether he has the class to beat the likes of Anthony Van Dyck and Verry Elleegant which you’d have to think the answer to that is no, but he will no doubt be running well and the booking of Jamie Kah means he gets a gun in form rider on board to give him his chance.
The gate makes it hard though as he will need a lot of luck.

Verdict: Ironhorse but a win would be surprising. Likely to be hitting the line in preparation for the Melbourne Cup.


11 – Master Of Wine (9.00) (in above tweet)


Trainer: Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes – Jockey: Craig Williams 53.5kgs – Barrier: 7

Record: 18-5-2-2 Prizemoney: $598k. Career Highlights: 1st Sky High Stakes G3 2000m Rosehill 14.3.20, 1st City Tatt’s Cup LR 2400m Randwick 26.10.19, 4th Queen Elizabeth Stakes G1 2000m Randwick 11.4.20, 4th Makybe Diva Stakes G1 1600m Flemington 12.9.20.

He's got the X-Factor required to figure in the finish in a Caulfield Cup.
His form late in 2019 and early 2020 was exceptional winning four on the trot culminating in his devastating win in the Sky High Stakes and a terrific effort when having his first crack at Group 1 level when 4th in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes when racing deep the trip and he kept finding the line.
He entered this campaign the raging favourite for this race in early markets but his hasn’t delivered on the market expectation yet failing to place in all of his three lead up runs.
His last run in the Turnbull was good without being great and he seemed to have his chance in the run and off that it’s hard to see where the improvement comes from to beat Verry Elleegant.
A big tick for him is the step up to 2400m.
The potential of a wet track and duel Caulfield Cup winning jockey Craig Williams taking over the ride but the query is whether that is enough to propel him into the winning circle.
He will be suited by a slow run race as he has a big sprint on him.

Verdict: Draws well and his best is good enough. One of the winning chances but risking him at the price.


12 – The Chosen One (81.00)


Trainer: Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman – Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse 53.5kgs- Barrier: 3

Record: 25-6-3-1 Prizemoney: $965k. Career Highlights: 1st Herbert Power Stakes G2 2400m Caulfield 12.10.19, 1st Frank Packer Plate G3 2000m Randwick 20.4.19, 2nd Sydney Cup G1 3200m Randwick 11.4.20, 4th Australian Derby G1 2400m Randwick 6.4.19.

Kiwi stayer who was a shock winner first up at Flemington over 1700m in Handicap grade but since has been very disappointing with two below par efforts in the Underwood Stakes and Herbert Power.
His form last year was much stronger and he could only manage to finish 9th albeit with not much luck.
Hard to see him improving enough to win this even with the Murray Baker polish who trained Mongolian Khan to win this race in 2015.

Verdict: One of the real roughies and is out of form. Can’t win.



13 – Warning (21.00) (in above tweet)


Trainer: Anthony and Sam Freedman – Jockey: Luke Currie 53kgs – Barrier: 20

Record: 15-2-1-3 Prizemoney: $1.5 million. Career Highlights: 1st VRC Derby G1 2500m Flemington 2.11.19, 1st Super Impose Stakes LR 1800m Flemington 5.10.19, 2nd Norman Robinson Stakes G3 2000m Caulfield 19.10.19, 3rd SA Derby G1 2500m Morphettville 9.5.20.

Victoria Derby winner who has returned in good order in preparation for this with two nice closing efforts at Flemington.
The first of those was in the Makybe Diva Stakes when he ran home in the equal best Last 200m of the race and was building up nicely.
Last start he was terrific when not given a lot of clear galloping room in the Turnbull Stakes when steaming home into 6th beaten a length by the winner Verry Elleegant.
He ran the best Last 400 and 200m sectionals of the race that day and the performance indicates the horse is set to peak here 3rd up.
Luke Currie taking over from Billy Egan is a positive as Luke has won races on the big stage and the step up to 2400m is ideal.
He’d love some rain and for the race to be slowly run as he has a sharp turn of foot.
His well weighted and gets a big 3kg swing on VE for his defeat in the Turnbull.
One of the major players here.

Verdict: Grand Final Trainers will have him set to peak here and Can run a big race despite the bad draw.


14 – Dalasan (19.00)


Trainer: Leon MacDonald and Andrew Gluyas – Jockey: Willie Pike 52.5kgs – Barrier: 14

Record: 19-7-4-2 Prizemoney: $2.17 million. Career Highlights: 1st Danehill Stakes G2 1200m Flemington 14.9.19, 1st Carbine Club Stakes G3 1600m Flemington 2.11.19, 1st Chairman’s Stakes G3 2000m Morphettville Parks 25.4.20, 1st Spring Stakes G3 1200m Morphettville 17.8.19, 2nd SA Derby G1 2500m Morphettville 8.5.20, 2nd VRC Sires Produce Stakes G2 1400m Flemington 9.3.19, 4th Turnbull Stakes G1 2000m Flemington 3.10.20.

Tough South Australian galloper who has mixed his distances through his career with success.
He’s trained by a Caulfield Cup winning combination in Leon MacDonald and Andrew Gluyas who had Southern Speed win in 2011.
He comes into this race 5th up and his given a great lead up preparation to allow to him run to his best here.
Willie Pike takes over the ride from Jamie Kah who left him for Prince Of Arran and given the form Pike is in it looks nearly a positive.
His run in the SA Derby when 2nd to Russian Camelot was terrific during the winter and if he can replicate that he will be in the mix when the whips are cracking.
He can roll forward and I’d expect with the low weight he will ridden to be in the first three or four early.
Had every possible in the Turnbull though and a few others seem better credentialed here.

Verdict: Has claims in an open race but can only see him winning if a couple don’t bring their best. Place hope only.


15 – True Self (26.00)


Trainer: Willie Mullins – Jockey: Declan Bates 52kgs – Barrier: 4

Record: 25-9-5-0 Prizemoney: $856k. Career Highlights: 1st Queen Elizabeth Stakes G3 2500m Flemington 9.11.19, 2nd Geelong Cup G3 2400m Geelong 23.10.19.

Irish visitor who came to Melbourne last year and performed well in the Geelong Cup when unlucky behind Prince Of Arran and then was one of the wins of Cup Week when bolting up in the Queen Elizabeth.
If she entered the race in that form she would be a key player but she doesn’t unfortunately for connections.
This year she has been woeful with her closest finish being at Cork in the Munster Oaks when beaten 7.6 lengths in a mediocre fillies and mares staying contest.
Last start she was well beaten in the Ebor Handicap and her form is just not at the level required to be competitive. 

Verdict: Hopelessly out of form and looks to be making up the numbers. Win would shock.


16 – Aktau (81.00)


Trainer: Michael Moroney- Jockey: Daniel Moor 51kgs – Barrier: 1

Record: 10-4-3-1 Prizemoney: $399k Career Highlights: 1st Mornington Cup LR 2400m Mornington 21.3.20.

Got the Golden Ticket into this race after winning the Mornington Cup back in March and he did it impressively that day when beating Inverloch and Skelm.
His form this prep has been below his best however and he would need to find lengths to be competitive. 

Verdict: Outclassed and deserves to be one of the outsiders.

17 – Toffee Tongue (15.00)


Trainer: Chris Waller – Jockey: Michael Dee 51kgs – Barrier: 5

Record: 12-1-5-1 Prizemoney: $510k Career Highlights: 1st Australasian Oaks G1 2000m Morphettville 2.5.20, 2nd ATC Oaks G1 2400m Randwick 11.4.20, 2nd Turnbull Stakes G1 2000m Flemington 3.10.20.

Her form earlier this year was good in 3YO fillies’ grade and the ATC Oaks can produce horses who run competitive in this each year namely Jameka who won in 2016 and Single Gaze who ran 2nd in 2017.
Her career best run was when 2nd in the Turnbull Stakes behind Verry Elleegant.
She had the gun run up the rail that day and did have every possible chance but you can’t knock her here as she draws well, has a light weight and is trained by a master in Chris Waller.
The step up to 2400m suits and she’s an obvious winning hope who looks set to run a career peak on Saturday with a beautiful map in transit.

Verdict: She maps for a gun run, is in form and can win.



18 – Chapada (21.00) (in above tweet)


Trainer: Michael Moroney – Jockey: Jye McNeil 50.5kgs – Barrier: 18

Record: 23-3-3-5 Prizemoney: $716k Career Highlights: 1st Herbert Power Stakes G2 2400m Caulfield 10.10.20, 3rd Zipping Classic G2 2400m Sandown Hillside 16.11.19, 3rd VRC Derby G1 2500m Flemington 3.11.18, 3rd Rosehill Guineas G1 2000m Rosehill 23.3.19.

His form in his 3YO days was quite good running very competitive races at Group 1 level including a desperately unlucky 3rd in the VRC Derby of 2018.
He took a while to get back to his best post his 3YO season but did run an encouraging race in the Zipping Classic behind Southern France last year.
Mike Moroney plotted a Winter campaign with the horse and he was able to win at Flemington and run competitive races throughout that prep giving the horse confidence.
His last two runs are terrific leading into this with a career best rating when 2nd in the Naturalism and a dominant win here last week in the Herbert Power which has been a key race for this in recent times with plenty of horses running well on the quick back up including Boom Time who won in 2017 on the 7-day back up.
The draw means who will probably need to go back and need luck but he has a talented rider on board in Jye McNeil. 

Verdict: Can run a big race on the quick back-up and run in the top 5. Probably lacks the class to win.


19 – Raheen House (201.00)
Trainer: Kris Lees- Jockey: 53.5kgs- Barrier: 22
Verdict: Needs it really wet to figure in the race if he gets a start. Regardless he’s outclassed.

20 – San Huberto (71.00)
Trainer: Matt Cumani- Jockey: Fred Kersley 53.5kgs – Barrier: 10
Verdict: If he made the field, he’d make his presence felt at a price. Needs it dry though.

21 – Oceanex (126.00)
Trainer: Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr – Jockey: Zac Spain 51.5kgs – Barrier: 8
Verdict: Good luck to connections if they get it a start but simply isn’t good enough to be competitive.

22 – Le Don De Vie (71.00)
Trainer: Anthony and Sam Freedman – Jockey: 52.5kgs – Barrier: 13
Verdict: International who I don’t think brings good enough form. Is up and coming though.

My Market to 100 percent: Verry Elleegant 5.5, Anthony Van Dyck 8, Buckhurst 10, Master Of Wine 11, Toffee Tongue 12, Finche 12, Warning 15, Avilius 16, Chapada 16, Mirage Dancer 34, Dalasan 34, Prince Of Arran 34, Vow And Declare 51, True Self 101, The Chosen One 101, Dashing Willoughby 101, Mustajeer 201, Aktau 201. Emergencies not included.

Race Overview
Verry Elleegant is the horse to beat as she maps ideal and is the class runner coming into the race in form and with a big chance she gets a Soft track.
Toffee Tongue is drawn for a great run and was terrific last start.
She has a big finish and the likely race pace will suit her.
Buckhurst is the fascinating runner with his best clearly good enough to win and the prospect he rolls forward making him a leading player.
Avilius has a strong SP Profile at G1 level and will appreciate 2400m plus a rain affected surface.
He is well over the odds.
Warning looks a good roughie but would be keener if he drew better.
Anthony Van Dyck has winning claims as he has the best form but has a task from the barrier and don’t know if the tempo will suit. 

My Top 4
7 Verry Elleegant, 17 Toffee Tongue, 4 Buckhurst, 2 Avilius


Suggested Bet: Verry Elleegant (5.00) (Win) and Toffee Tongue (14.00) (Win) for the same amount. 


Good luck punters!



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