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Trav Noonan’s Saturday Racing June 5 Flemington Preview: Race Looks Ideal For Chief Altony & Mark Zahra

June 4, 2021April 26th, 2022

Flemington is back on Saturday with the running of nine races from HQ.
The track is rated a Good4 but there is overcast conditions lurking, so perhaps some rain will hit and push the track into the soft range.
The rail is out 8m the entire circuit should see most horses get their chance but as always, it’s worth monitoring the earlier races to try and decipher a pattern. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Best Bet – Race 3 – 12 – Chief Altony (2.15) (in above tweet)

 

Loved the way this horse won at Ballarat last time when destroying his rivals that day.
His run first up was also very good behind a smart horse and he seemingly has come back in career best form this time in.
He is a horse with real scope to end up in better races and he has a powerful sprint.
Mark Zahra (pictured at top) going on is a positive as he is going at 25 percent from his last 100 rides. 
Considering a few of the others here either spot him a start on the map or are early in their campaigns this looks an ideal race for the Chief.
Expecting his price to firm and for him to be very popular in betting. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Next – Race 2 – 2 – La Vina (3.40) (in above tweet)

While she didn't win last start she was heavily supported by the market and did acquit herself well over a trip in hindsight is too short for her at this level.
She was just outsprinted by some sharper horses late in that race.
The step up to 1400m now 4th up and Damien Oliver going back on look major positives.
Feel she's a better horse than her former WA rival in Snickerdoodledandy and think the Jamie Kah factor is the only reason that horse is favourite here as her Melbourne Form isn't as good as La Vina
Keen to back this girl at 3.00+.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Value – Race 7 – 4 – Namakwa (9.50) (in above tweet)

 

All three runs this prep have been good and very much like that he has the 2100m lead up run under the belt for this assignment.
Ben Allen going on is a major tick as his combination with Maher/Eustace trained horses results in a profit on turnover and the other big plus for this horse is blinkers on.
After doing some stats queries last week we learnt that horses going to 2000m+ races with blinkers on first time are extremely profitable over the last 12 months when SP shorter than 21.00.
It's around a 34 percent POT and 20 percent winning strike-rate for these horses with recent winners including In Good Health and Rousseau
In a race full of icky form he could be the real improver and certainly at double figures is worth an each way gamble.
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Two Bet Strategy: Race 5 – 3 – Yulong January (3.10) and 10 – Vinland (41.00)

 

Really like this race from a betting point of view as feel the favourite will firm in betting in Yulong January (in above tweet) and that a long odds hope is well over-priced in Vinland.
Yulong January is coming off a near career peak rating last start when he was a great winner at this course and distance.
He maps for a gun run and keeps the in-form Mark Zahra.
He was well backed last start and I'd expect the same here given how well he is racing.
Vinland is having his second run for the new stable of Peter Moody and wasn't disgraced first up at an unsuitable distance when doing his best work late.
He does have a good record here 2nd up and loves 1400m.
Damien Oliver being booked for the ride is a sign that the stable think he can win as when Moody and Oliver combine they have an unbelievable POT and strike-rate.
He is certainly a great 1×3 bet in the race.

 

 

Good luck punters!
 

 

 

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