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Australian Guineas Day is upon us with the running of the 1600m Group 1 feature for the 3YOs only a sleep away.
The race has produced some classic finishes in years gone by and has won by some top class racehorses including the likes of Mahogany, Apache Cat, Miss Finland, Mosheen, Shamus Award and Palentino.
This year the field has two Group 1 winners in the line-up the CS Hayes Stakes winner Tagaloa and Ole Kirk, who is on the quick back up after being thrashed by Probabeel last week.
The undercard to the meeting also packs a punch with the running of the Group 2 Blamey Stakes, Bob Hoysted Handicap for the 1000m speedsters and the Shaftesbury Avenue Handicap which sees Queensland's cult hero The Harrovian strive for 12 victories in a row.
That's without mentioning the depth in the Frances Tressady Stakes for the mares over 1400m in Race 9.
Certainly looks a great day of racing at Headquarters.
The track is a Good4 and the rail is out 2m the entire circuit.
Expecting a fair track given the way Liam O'Keefe and have been presenting the Flemington surface over the past 12 months. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CLICK HERE: $4.00 Tycoon Humma to Win Flemington R1

 

 

 

Race 7 – Australian Guineas 1600m G1 3YOs

Early Speed: Expecting a fast tempo with the likes of Grandslam (41.00), Poland (12.00), Tagaloa (3.80) (in above tweet), Aysar (7.50), Jet Propulsion (26.00) and Zou Dancer (5.50) setting up the pace.
Here To Shock (34.00) is likely to be ridden more conservatively early.
Dom To Shoot (10.00) should slot in midfield with Cambourne (23.00).
Cherry Tortoni (12.00) and Ole Kirk (8.00) from the wide draws likely have to go right back to the tail of the field. 

Horse To Beat: He is a clear favourite here Tagaloa and on the basis of his last run it's not hard to understand why.
In the CS Hayes Stakes he was brilliant sustaining a fast pace early before accelerating away from his rivals in the straight when running the best Last 200m of the race.
It was a super performance on the clock and one that indicated that horse is in the zone this preparation after an encouraging run behind Oakleigh Plate winner Portland Sky first up. 
The map here is a little trickier for Currie from 10 but with him hot off a Group 1 win expecting Luke will be high on confidence and riding at the peak of his powers.
If he runs a strong 1600m, he is your winner.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Danger: Hard to look past Aysar (in above tweet) here as one of the key players.
Yes he has run four seconds in a row and maybe is a bit of a thinker but each run has had plenty of merit.
Both runs this time in the stable have said has blown out late and his sectionals would indicate that is correct.
Now 3rd up and at his Grand Final expect an improvement fitness wise and a better performance.
He did start favourite against Tagaloa last time and with a soft draw and step to 1600m could change the result.
Think he's overs in the market early.

 

 

 

 

 

Avoid: Ole Kirk (in above tweet) here is the horse to take on.
He's on the quick back up after an average run last weekend and draws terribly in Gate 15 which will force him to go back and give the key chances a big head start.
Task on Saturday just looks too big for him. 
Zou Dancer was dominant in the Vanity but this is much harder and the boys in the CS Hayes on same day and same track/distance rated nearly 5 lengths superior.
Jamie Kah factor is huge though and she does map for a good run.
Cherry Tortoni would have been a bet if he didn't draw so poorly in Gate 17.
From that alley Billy Egan has to go right back and give away a lot of ground which hinders the chestnut's chances.
Still though that is factored into his price.
Grandslam and Ironedge (81.00) look the best roughies. 

Verdict: Tagaloa top pick from Aysar.
Cherry Tortoni is 3rd top rater and Grandslam has claims at big odds if he rolls forward.
Happy to be against Ole Kirk.

 

 

Suggested Bet: Tagaloa (3.80), Aysar (7.50) (win)
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Race 6 – Blamey Stakes 1600m G2

Early Speed: Buffalo River (2.70) (in above tweet) should cross and lead here easily from Irish Flame (26.00) who will be more forward up in distance.
Best Of Days (5.50) and Mystic Journey (6.00) should enjoy good runs just off the leaders while Star Of The Seas (5.00) is likely to be midfield with Fifty Stars (8.00) toward the tail.

Horse To Beat: Buffalo River clearly looks the key chance here given his record here and the fact that he will own the race in front.
He was terrific first up and only has to hold that form to be winning.
He also has the added bonus of Jamie Kah in the saddle.
2nd up last prep he was only beaten by Mr Quickie in a Toorak Handidap, which looks a great reference for this. 
Anything above 2.50 looks more than fair.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Danger: Looking a bit left of field here and have come up with a roughie in Vassilator (31.00) (in above tweet).
This horse has a great record at Flemington winning four races here and looks suited at 1600m.
He was back in a slowly run race last start behind Best Of Days (5.50) and had no mathematical hope of winning given how slowly they went in front.
His last 200m in that race was very good though as he ran the quickest final furlong of the race.
Maps for a good run here and is racing in great order. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CLICK HERE: $4.00 Tycoon Humma to Win Flemington R1

 

 

Mystic Journey (in above tweet) has been rolled at short odds in Tasmania at both her runs back from a spell and must lift on those efforts to be winning.
She is an exceptional Flemington horse though and has a habit of peaking 3rd up in her campaigns.
Star Of The Seas looks a key hope if he brings his best form which saw him run 2nd to Verry Elleegant and Kolding at Group 1 level last spring.
His run in the Expressway was better than it looked. 
Fifty Stars is striving for three wins in a row in the Blamey but was poor first up when beaten a long margin in the Apollo Stakes.
Best Of Days is racing very well but was given all the favours to win last start in the Carlyon Cup.
Don't expect he gets that here.

Verdict: Buffalo River clearly the horse to beat with Star Of The Seas and Mystic Journey good chances of running Top 3.
Vassilator can cause an upset if a few are off their best.

 

 

Suggested Bet – Buffalo River (2.70) (win), Vassilator (31.00, 6.00) (Win, Place 1×3)
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BEST BET – Race 8 – 3 Rocketing By (4.00) (in above tweet)

Love the way this horse is going about his racing.
Beat proper horses at Randwick last time when charging home to win.
If finds luck from Gate 1 he should prove too good for this moderate lot.
The price on offer is absurd should be close to half that given how much ability he has.

 

NEXT BEST – Race 1 – 1 Kallos (4.60)

Comes through the right form line in the Blue Diamond Prelude for the boys.
Horses around him were all competitive in the Group 1 last week.
Damien Oliver takes over the ride and back to 1000m are positives.
Over the odds in early markets. 

 

VALUE – Race 2 – 1 Nelson (8.00)

Good return in a fast run race at Moonee Valley.
He was strong late there and now with more fitness on his side maybe able to position closer to the lead.
His best form he was only beaten 4.5 lengths by Enable in the Arc de Triomphe which is the best race in the world.
Damian Lane going on board is great also. 

 

 

Good luck punters!
 

 

 

Flemington Markets

$4.00 Tycoon Humma to Win Flemington R1

$3.80 Shaquero to Win Randwick R2

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